EL AVIV – Israel’s senior military intelligence analyst said Tuesday
that the Syrian government had repeatedly used chemical weapons in the
last month, and criticized the international community for failing to
respond, intensifying pressure on the Obama administration to intervene.
“The regime has increasingly used chemical weapons,” said Brig. Gen.
Itai Brun, research commander in the intelligence directorate of the
Israeli Defense Forces, echoing a recent finding by Britain and France.
“The very fact that they have used chemical weapons without any
appropriate reaction,” he added, “is a very worrying development,
because it might signal that this is legitimate.”
General Brun’s statements are the most definitive by an Israeli official
to date regarding evidence of chemical weapons attacks on March 19 near
Aleppo and Damascus. Another military official, speaking on the
condition of anonymity, said that the evidence had been presented to the
Obama administration — which has declared the use of chemicals a “red
line” that could prompt American action in Syria — but that Washington
has not fully accepted the analysis.
“When you draw a red line, you have very little interest in crossing it,
if crossing it means you have to take action,” said the official, who
was not authorized to address the matter publicly.
In briefings on Tuesday, the Israelis said they believed that the
attacks March 19 involved the use of sarin gas, the same agent used in a
1995 attack in the Tokyo subway that killed 13. The Syrian attacks
killed “a couple of dozens,” the military official said, in what Israel
judged as “a test” by President Bashar al-Assad of the international
community’s response. He said the government had deployed chemicals a
handful of times since, but that details of those attacks were
sketchier.
“Their fear of using it is much lower than before using it,” the
official said. “If somebody would take any reaction, maybe it would
deter them from using it again.” Regarding possible further attacks, he
added, “Now I’m more worried than I was before.”
Israel has been deeply reluctant to act on its own in Syria, for fear
that it could bolster President Assad by uniting anti-Israel sentiment.
But the public statements regarding the attacks, days after the British
and French governments wrote to the United Nations Secretary General
saying they, too, had evidence of chemical use, complicates the
situation for Washington.
President Obama said last month during his visit to Israel that proof of
chemical weapons use would be a “game changer.” But Defense Secretary
Chuck Hagel said Monday that the intelligence regarding the attacks
remained inconclusive, and his press secretary, George Little, said
Tuesday that the Pentagon was continuing to assess reports on the
matter.
“The use of such weapons would be entirely unacceptable,” Mr. Little
said in Amman, Jordan, where Mr. Hagel landed Tuesday. “We reiterate in
the strongest possible terms the obligations of the Syrian regime to
safeguard its chemical weapons stockpiles, and not to use or transfer
such weapons to terrorist groups like Hezbollah.”
Speaking about Syria at a conference of Israel’s Institute for National
Security Studies here, General Brun said “it is quite clear that they
used harmful chemical weapons,” citing “different signs” including
pictures of victims “foaming at the mouth.” He went beyond the March 19
attack to speak of “continuous” use of such weapons, and described a
“huge arsenal” of more than 1,000 tons stockpiled in Syria.
The military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said that
Israel based its analysis mainly on publicly available photographs of
victims, but said there was also corroborating “direct evidence” that he
would not detail.
The United States has also made efforts to gather evidence from the field.
Majid, a rebel commander from the eastern suburbs of Damascus, said his
battalion had been contacted, through intermediaries, by the Central
Intelligence Agency, requesting samples to be tested for the presence of
chemicals. Speaking via Skype from Jordan, and on the condition he be
identified only by first name for his safety, Majid said the American
intelligence agency had requested soil, urine and hair samples from
several areas around Damascus: Jobar, a northeastern neighborhood of the
city that has been fiercely contested in recent months; Adra, an
industrial area north of the city; and Ataibeh, northeast of the
capital.
“We’re still waiting to get the samples,” Majid said, explaining that it
would take time because of the difficulty of traveling to contested
areas.
Louay Mekdad, a spokesman for the Free Syrian Army, has also said the
umbrella group of rebels would collect evidence of the attacks,
including testimony from doctors and patients and physical samples.
Though the Assad government had claimed last month that it was the
rebels who used chemicals, General Brun echoed previous statements by
Israeli and American officials that it was clearly the Syrian
government, and not the opposition, that had conducted the attacks.
Israeli military officials said that over the past few months Syria has
sharply consolidated its chemical stockpiles, reducing the number of
sites by about half to retain greater control over the arsenal. The
weapons are now stored in 15 to 20 sites, they said.
If American officials have been more reluctant that their allies to come
to firm conclusions, it may be because it would force Mr. Obama’s hand.
In August, the president told reporters that any evidence that Mr. Assad was moving the weapons or making use of them could prompt the United States to act.
“That would change my calculus,” he said. “That would change my equation.”
But when strong evidence emerged earlier this year that Mr. Assad’s
forces were in fact moving their weapons — at least from one depot to
another — the White House insisted that the action did not cross the
line that Mr. Obama set. By “move” the weapons, a White House spokesman
said, Mr. Obama meant transferring them to a terror group, like
Hezbollah.
Nonetheless, according to two American officials, Washington sent
messages to President Assad that the threat had to be taken seriously.
“We saw a reaction,” one official said. Protection of the sites was
improved. While the United States has drawn up plans to seize control of
the weapons if need be — by parachuting in troops to the key sites —
American officials have made it clear that they would prefer that
regional forces take the lead. But if the weapons were actually used, as
three American allies now contend, it would be far more difficult for
Mr. Obama to argue that his “red line” has not been crossed.
Israel, which in January bombed a convoy of sophisticated antiaircraft
weapons it feared was being transferred from Syria to Hezbollah in
Lebanon, has been preparing its own plans, though it far prefers a
broader international intervention.
“There is a risk that if Israel will do something there will be no
international community or coalition,” said the Israeli military
official. “Maybe because Israel is so close Israel sees it differently
from the rest of the world. Just imagine if there was a use of chemical
weapons in Mexico. Everyone in the southern United States would be very
worried about that.”
The Syrian government has never publicly acknowledged that it has
chemical weapons, stating simply that it would never use chemical
weapons, if it had them, against its own people. But in July, a
prominent government spokesman, Jihad Makdissi, raised eyebrows earlier
in the conflict by saying that Syria would use chemical weapons only
against a foreign attacker, not against its own people. But he also
noted that Syria was facing external enemies as part of the conflict.
Some read his wording as an admission that Syria had the weapons. Others
noted that since Syria’s government has characterized its armed
opponents as foreign and foreign-inspired terrorists, the statement
might be laying the groundwork to justify using the weapons against the
uprising.
Mr. Makdissi later took a less prominent role and fled the country five months later.
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